Ethiopia is Ratcheting Up Tension in the Horn of Africa
Addis Ababa's single-minded focus on sea access may lead to more conflict in the war-torn region
Ethiopia is on the cusp of becoming the first nation in the world to recognize the independence of Somaliland in a deal that will compound existing regional tension and potentially lead to open conflict. Addis Ababa is preparing to grant recognition to the breakaway state in exchange for a sea port that will include a previously undisclosed naval base:
Ethiopia, [Somaliland President Muse Bihi] Abdi said, is seeking to lease a segment of the coastline for a naval base — and not for commercial activities as previously thought. In exchange for leasing a 20 kilometer (12.4 mile) stretch of Somaliland’s coastline, Ethiopia would recognize Somaliland as an independent state.
This move has predictably incensed Somali officials and regional players with Egypt’s President al-Sisi issuing a strong warning at a recent press conference in Cairo:
"Egypt will not allow anyone to threaten Somalia or affect its security," Sisi said, speaking at a news conference with visiting Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. "Do not try Egypt, or try to threaten its brothers especially if they ask it to intervene," he added.
Like many conflicts in Africa, this burgeoning one can trace its roots back to the colonial lines drawn by Western Europe in the nineteenth century. Modern day Somaliland and Somalia were once the British Protectorate of Somaliland and Italian Colonial Somaliland respectively. During the process of decolonization during the twentieth century, the two merged to become the independent Somali Republic in 1960.
The new republic would last nine years before Major General Mohamed Siad Barre overthrew the parliamentary democracy and installed himself as the leader of a Supreme Revolutionary Council. The Washington Post summarized his rule in his 1995 obituary:
He rose from his origins as an orphaned shepherd boy to rule Somalia for more than two decades, using a mixture of terror and guile. After leading a bloodless 1969 coup, Mr. Barre took his country through a succession of droughts, survived defeat in a long desert war with Ethiopia and maneuvered alliances with the Soviets and Americans.
Amid the 1991 civil war that led to Barre’s ouster, Somaliland declared independence claiming the former British Protectorate’s boundaries. While this proclamation isn’t currently recognized by the international community, Somaliland has now de facto self-governed for three decades. America was infamously involved in the civil war after troops providing humanitarian aid came under fire from Mohammed Aidid’s forces precipitating Operation Gothic Serpent which led to the Black Hawk Down incident and eighteen servicemen’s deaths during the Clinton administration. Around the same time, Eritrea would finally win independence from Ethiopian annexation cutting Addis Ababa off from the Red Sea and creating the most populous land-locked country on Earth.
Which brings us back to the current crisis. Ethiopia maintains sea access is an existential question for the country. Somalia is flatly rejecting any negotiation or mediation related to the port deal and U.S. intelligence suggests since the deal was announced in late December, al-Qaeda’s regional affiliate al-Shabaab has successfully used it as a recruiting tool:
The U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Mike Hammer, who attended [a meeting of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development] as an observer along with the European Union, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, said the MOU threatened to further undermine regional security and had been weaponized by Al Shabaab militants.
"We have already seen troubling indications that al-Shabaab is using the MOU to generate new recruits," he told delegates in Uganda, according to a copy of the remarks seen by Reuters.
Mogadishu, in protest, has gone as far as turning away a plane carrying Ethiopian diplomats to Somaliland which it claimed did not have clearance to be in Somali airspace. The deal has also come under fire from the African and European Unions and the United States:
Regarding Somalia, the AU, EU and U.S. said they recognize the country’s sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity, including the breakaway region of Somaliland…Annette Weber, the EU special envoy for the Horn of Africa, said the two crises [The war in Sudan & Ethiopian port lease] have a common link with [the] Red Sea, which she called a critical waterway carrying 10 percent of global cargo.
Somalia is already plagued with violence and dysfunction and if Ethiopia and Somaliland move forward with this naval base, the regional security situation is all but guaranteed to further crumble. Al-Shabaab will undoubtedly exploit Somali popular opinion against the deal and Somalia’s expected diplomatic retaliation will undermine ongoing counter-terrorism activities:
Should Ethiopia proceed with the deal, Mogadishu has signaled it may order the expulsion of Ethiopian troops deployed in Somalia to fight against al-Shabaab. A withdrawal would affect the ongoing counterterrorism campaigns undertaken against al-Shabaab in southern and central Somalia, forcing Somali government forces to expand their presence into other locations.
I would bet the farm that less than five percent of Americans know we’re launching airstrikes on al-Shabaab as recently as last Tuesday (killing three militants in the process). I would further wager that in most American’s perception, al-Qaeda died with Osama bin Laden in 2011. That’s the double edged sword of successful counter-terrorism practices. But Americans can’t afford to ignore the region—on January 21 U.S. CENTCOM announced tragically that two Navy SEALs drowned while attempting to board a vessel carrying Iranian arms off the coast of Somalia.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Asnar Allah, al-Shabaab—the region is teeming with extremists armed with Iranian kit. There’s one main straw stirring the dysfunction in the Middle East and its perimeter regions. From Iraq, to Lebanon, to Gaza, to east Africa: Iran is the chief exporter of terror and violence.
We should be employing crippling sanctions on Ayatollah Khamenei’s revolutionary theocracy and doing everything we can to facilitate its downfall. The alternative is a chaos-filled future of well armed terrorists engaging in piracy and deadly attacks on civilian and military populations.
Jordan
CNN is reporting that the U.S. has lost its first military personnel to direct enemy fire since the start of the war in Gaza:
Three US Army troops were killed and at least two dozen service members were injured in a drone attack overnight on a small US outpost in Jordan, US officials told CNN, marking the first time US troops have been killed by enemy fire in the Middle East since the beginning of the Gaza war.
May their memories be a blessing. This is outrageous and hopefully the Biden administration will authorize the DoD to hunt down and kill those responsible and confront Tehran for backing these lunatics.
Turkey
Lots of news out of Turkey since we last checked in on Asia Minor a few weeks back. Sadly yesterday two gunmen stormed a Catholic mass and killed a worshiper before fleeing:
the attack, which Ankara condemned, took place around 0840 GMT at the Italian Santa Maria Catholic Church in the Sariyer district, and that one person - who was targeted by the gunmen - was killed while attending the service.
Official reports haven’t named the suspected culprits but speculation among regional watchers suggests ISKP may be behind the attack.
On the propaganda front, several outlets/Twitter accounts clocked Turkish media discussing an insanely irredentist map last week that shows Erdoğan’s Ottoman fantasies are not limited to the Presidential palace in Ankara:
Speaking of Erdoğan, last week he signed the Turkish parliament’s ratification of Swedish NATO ascension leaving Viktor Orbán and Hungary as the last remaining holdout. In exchange for holding Swedish membership hostage, Washington will reward Erdoğan with rapid F-16 sales.
Foggy Bottom is also apparently mulling over an insane DoD-backed plan that would see Kurdish Syrian forces partner with Bashar al-Assad’s government to combat ISIS (I cannot believe that is a real sentence I just typed). Turkey has allegedly been invited to provide input on the plan despite the fact they’re currently bombing the SDF on a constant basis:
The Pentagon has floated a plan for its Syrian Kurdish allies in the campaign against the Islamic State (ISIS) to partner with the Syrian regime, part of a renewed review of the United States’ Syria policy that is currently ongoing at the State Department and for which Turkey, a key NATO ally, has been tapped for its input, according to well-placed sources with knowledge of the deliberations who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition they not be identified by name.
North Korea
While Stalin famously erased his Soviet enemies from photos and records, Kim Jong Un has possibly one-upped him by disappearing a 98 foot monument in Pyongyang:
Satellite imagery of Pyongyang on Tuesday showed that the monument, an arch symbolizing hopes for Korean reunification which was completed after a landmark inter-Korea summit in 2000, was no longer there, according to a report by NK News, an online outlet that monitors North Korea.
North Korea has also been continuing to fire missiles off the peninsula amid increased militarization and weapons exports:
The latest launches came days after North Korea fired what it called a new strategic cruise missile called "Pulhwasal-3-31", suggesting it is nuclear capable…Pyongyang is likely to continue or even increase provocative steps, officials and analysts say, after it made strides in ballistic missile development, bolstered cooperation with Russia and China, and scrapped its decades-long goal of peacefully reuniting with South Korea.
Burkina Faso
Africa Corps, Russia’s newly formed replacement for the Wagner PMC, has officially deployed to Burkina Faso:
Russia bolstered its influence in the troubled Sahel region of West Africa with about 100 military personnel from the country arriving in Burkina Faso on Wednesday, the first large deployment in that nation. The troops, the initial contingent of a planned force three times that size, will provide security for Ibrahim Traoré, the president of the country’s military regime, and the Burkinabe people, the Russian Africa Corps said in a statement posted on its Telegram channel.
Adding to the regional chaos, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have also announced their official pullout from ECOWAS after being suspended for their recent military coups:
The juntas said in a joint statement read out on state television in all three countries that they have “decided in complete sovereignty on the immediate withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS),” alleging that the bloc has “moved away from the ideals of its founding fathers and pan-Africanism” after nearly 50 years of its establishment.
Nothing good is going to come from either of these developments.
Houthis
Over the weekend, the Houthis hit a Marshall Islands flagged commercial tanker with a missile:
A tanker with links to the UK was on fire for several hours in the Gulf of Aden after being hit by a missile fired by the Houthis. The Iran-backed movement, based in Yemen, said it targeted the Marlin Luanda on Friday in response to "American-British aggression".
The Yemeni terrorists then followed that up by firing a missile at the USS Carney that was patrolling the Red Sea:
The attack on the U.S. warship, the destroyer USS Carney, marked a further escalation in the biggest confrontation at sea the U.S. Navy has seen in the Middle East in decades, as Houthi missile fire set another commercial vessel ablaze Friday night.
Last week Damien Symon created an updated map of maritime attacks by Iran-backed proxies and the graphic is pretty stunning:
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