Shield of the Republic's Next Era
The country's preeminent national security podcast is getting a major upgrade
One thing I love about writing on Substack is the amount of analytics they provide writers. From the backend I know that Son of a Diplomat has readers from Taiwan to Finland and that roughly half of my audience overlaps with The Bulwark which is no surprise given kind shout-outs in Jim Swift’s newsletter, Bill Kristol’s Twitter feed, and on the show I produce on their podcast network.
For those that don’t know—Shield of the Republic is a weekly hourlong show about national security and foreign policy hosted by Eric Edelman (titular diplomat from SoaD) and Eliot Cohen. Beginning in late 2021 as a bimonthly podcast, the show grew into a weekly program at the start of 2023 and has had guests like former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates and former CIA Director David Petraeus stop by over the past 86 episodes. And (if all goes smoothly) starting this week the show will debut a video version on The Bulwark’s YouTube channel with our biggest guest yet.
I say if all goes smoothly because I spent most of the time I normally would dedicate to researching, writing, and editing this newsletter this weekend brushing up on Adobe Premiere. Fingers crossed the editing process doesn’t prove too challenging. While I couldn’t write a full-fledged feature this week, I’m still including Running Threads below as there was quite a bit of movement in the global conflict space last week.
Moldova
I recommended a breakdown of the Moldovan breakaway state of Transnistria a couple of weeks ago in Thursday Screening. It turns out that was chillingly prescient as the Institute for the Study of War issued an alarming warning last Thursday that Transnistria may attempt to be annexed into the Russian Federation the way the Luhansk and Donetsk “People’s Republics” have in the past:
Warning: The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria may call for or organize a referendum on Transnistria’s annexation to Russia at a recently announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for February 28. The pretext for such a call would be the purported need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both. Russian President Vladimir Putin could, in the most dangerous course of action, declare Russia’s annexation of Transnistria during his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29, although that appears unlikely. Putin will more likely welcome whatever action the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies takes and offer observations on the situation.
As I wrote last week, Vladimir Putin is hellbent on reconstituting the Russkiy Mir of the past and annexing the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic directly into the Federation is surely on the agenda in the Kremlin. Muscovy delenda est.
Armenia/Azerbaijan
When Azerbaijan launched offensive operations in 2020 capturing back the majority of the Nagorno-Karabakh exclave, Armenia’s purported ally Russia mostly stayed on the sideline only stepping in to mediate a ceasefire after the Armenians had already been thoroughly beaten. Following that, last fall the Russian peacekeepers in the region stood by as Azeri state forces orchestrated a so-called “environmental protest” of the sole remaining road linking what was left of Stepanakert’s territory and Armenia proper. That blockade was followed by another Azeri clearing operation that effectively ended Armenian presence in the exclave for good. Russia’s betrayal of their CSTO partner has not gone without consequence:
France wants Armenia to know it has its back — amid increased tensions with its neighbor Azerbaijan and strained ties with its historic ally, Russia. On Friday, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu and his Armenian counterpart Suren Papikyan met in the Armenian capital to highlight deepening defense links between the two countries. Lecornu's airplane carried night vision goggles for Armenia, which also signed a contract to buy assault rifles from French company PGM; discussions about purchasing short-range Mistral missiles from European contractor MBDA are moving forward.
This increased French-Armenian cooperation comes at a time when Baku’s forces are still positioned inside Armenia proper and sporadically firing on Armenian positions in the area. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has also announced the country has frozen its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and once again warned of additional Azeri aggression:
Armenia has frozen its participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) because the bloc had failed the country, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in an interview broadcast on Thursday. Pashinyan also said that Azerbaijan, with which Armenia has fought two wars over the past three decades, was not adhering to the principles needed to clinch a long-term peace treaty, and suggested Azerbaijan was preparing to launch another attack.
Somalia/Ethiopia
While the Turks aren’t busy arming Baku to the teeth with drones, they’re expanding their regional influence by partnering with Somalia to counter Ethiopia’s attempts to secure sea access via Somaliland’s coast:
Somalia announced on Wednesday a defense deal with Turkey that includes support for the Horn of Africa nation’s sea assets and appears aimed at deterring Ethiopia’s efforts to secure access to the sea by way of the breakaway region of Somaliland…Details of that agreement have not been made public, but Somalia sees such a deal as an act of aggression, even though Somaliland has enjoyed de facto independence for three decades. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told reporters on Saturday that senior officers from Ethiopia’s military were in Somaliland “preparing the ground” for the territory’s annexation.
This port leasing deal is looking increasingly like it could lead to additional conflict in the already war-torn region. Mogadishu’s rhetoric is getting more defiant the longer this episode goes on:
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said his country would "defend itself" if Ethiopia goes ahead with a deal to set up a naval base in the breakaway region of Somaliland and possibly recognise the territory as an independent state.
Houthis
Yemen’s rag-tag band of Iran-sponsored terrorists can now add ‘environmental terrorism’ to their long list of crimes having struck a U.K. cargo ship last Monday carrying fertilizer resulting in oil leaking into the Red Sea:
The U.S. military called the damage to the U.K.-owned vessel carrying over 40,000 tons of fertilizer struck by Iran-backed Houthi rebels an “environmental disaster.” Houthis attacked the cargo ship operated by Rubymar Monday night, causing “significant damage” to the vessel which prompted an 18-mile oil slick, according to the U.S. military. The ship’s cargo, over 41,000 tons of fertilizer “could spill into the Red Sea and worsen this environmental disaster,” U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said Friday night in a statement.
I’m willing to wager the Venn Diagram between the “Hands Off Yemen” crowd and the “Just Stop Oil” gang is a perfect circle. Would love to hear their thoughts on the Houthis violently dumping oil into the Red Sea.
Coalition forces struck back Saturday, hitting an array of Houthi assets according to USCENTCOM:
On Feb. 24, at approximately 11:45 p.m. (Sanaa Yemen time), U.S. Central Command forces alongside UK Armed Forces, and with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and New Zealand, conducted strikes against 18 Houthi targets in Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist-controlled areas of Yemen. These strikes from this multilateral coalition targeted areas used by the Houthis to attack international merchant vessels and naval ships in the region. Illegal Houthi attacks have disrupted humanitarian aid bound for Yemen, harmed Middle Eastern economies, and caused environmental damage.
As I’ve said in the past if the Biden administration is serious about combatting this threat they need to go after the orchestrators of this campaign in Tehran.
El Salvador
President Nayib Bukele has secured sweeping powers for his constitutionally dubious second term via a super-majority in El Salvador’s Congress of his Nuevas Ideas party:
Electoral authorities on Sunday confirmed Bukele's whopping win with almost 85% of the vote and on Monday that his party now controlled a 54-seat super majority. A super majority in Congress is seen giving Bukele unprecedented power, including allowing him to change the country's constitution and continue to shelve constitutional rights in his popular crackdown on the country's gangs, which has drawn criticisms from rights groups.
Amnesty International is warning that this second term could herald even more serious human rights abuses as Bukele’s power becomes unchecked:
We are deeply concerned by how respect for and protection of human rights have eroded under the Nayib Bukele administration and by the likelihood that they will continue to erode at an even greater pace during his second term. Over the past five years, we have witnessed the grave crisis precipitated by a model of government that encouraged mass human rights violations and evasion of national and international accountability mechanisms
Naturally the lunatics over at CPAC decided to invite the would-be Salvadoran Dictator to speak at the conference and encourage American Republicans to import his authoritarian Central American style to the United States:
El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele received a rock-star welcome Thursday at a conservative gathering outside Washington as he urged people to “unapologetically fight” against what he called “dark forces.” At the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, Bukele told people to use El Salvador as a warning. He said gangs took control of his country and society decades ago and said a fight was needed to arrest criminals and remove corrupt judges.
Thanks for reading Son of a Diplomat. Don’t forget to subscribe to The Bulwark’s YouTube channel and keep an eye out for Shield of the Republic’s first simulcast on video! If you like this newsletter, you’ll love the show.