In six days Venezuela will hold a nationwide referendum that could lay the groundwork for the 2020’s next war of conquest. If successful, the referendum would provide the basis for creating a Venezuelan State in Guyana Essequibo in internationally recognized Guyanan territory. Although Venezuela has maintained a claim to Essequibo since the turn of the twentieth century, recent investments from international oil companies in the resource-laden region have made it an attractive target for hostile takeover. As world tension ratchets up, Caracas looks like a prime candidate to take advantage of the current chaotic global stage to forcefully expand its border.
The language in Sunday’s referendum is loaded and concerning:
1. Do you agree to reject by all means in accordance with the law, the line fraudulently interposed by the 1899 Paris Arbitration Award, which seeks to deprive us of our Guayana Esequiba?
2. Do you support the 1966 Geneva Agreement as the only valid legal instrument to reach a practical and satisfactory solution for Venezuela and Guyana regarding the controversy over the territory of Guayana Esequiba?
3. Do you agree with Venezuela's historical position of not recognizing the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice to resolve the territorial controversy over Guayana Esequiba?
4. Do you agree to oppose, by all legal means, Guyana's claim to unilaterally dispose of a sea pending delimitation, illegally and in violation of international law?
5. Do you agree with the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state and the development of an accelerated plan for comprehensive care for the current and future population of that territory, which includes, among others, the granting of citizenship and identity card? Venezuela, in accordance with the Geneva Agreement and International Law, consequently incorporating said state on the map of Venezuelan territory?
Emphasis mine. Particularly alarming is the fifth ballot measure which rings eerily similar to recent efforts by Russia and Azerbaijan to absorb populations from countries they invaded. In Russia’s case they’ve forced Russian passports on millions of Ukrainian adults in occupied territory and kidnapped somewhere between 20,000-300,000 Ukrainian children throughout the course of their war of aggression. Azerbaijan took a less heavy-handed approach when they recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh from the Armenian client republic of Artsakh, opting to offer “fast-tracked” Azeri citizenship to the conquered Armenians. A whopping total of seven residents took them up on the offer (It turns out most folks don’t like being forcibly integrated in to a new state as an ethnic minority).
Regional commenters expect the referendum to pass and President Nicolás Maduro’s administration has been waging a thorough propaganda campaign ahead of the vote:
To get people ready, Maduro’s government has embarked on what he calls a “pedagogical electoral campaign,” and he has become a sort of teacher-in-chief, giving hours-long nationally televised history lessons on Essequibo.
School teachers and parents have taken notice.
“The oldest one has to make a drawing highlighting the Essequibo,” Luz Marina Rua said referring to her son’s middle school homework. “Yesterday, I had to make a bib for my preschool daughter that represented bauxite, a mineral she was going to play in a sort of performance and say, ‘I am the rock that appears in the Essequibo.’”
Maduro’s efforts have unsettling echoes of Vladimir Putin’s 2021 essay “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” which formulated part of Russia’s casus belli when they crossed the border in to Ukraine in February 2022. Public pseudo-historical reasoning played a large role in Moscow and Baku’s preparations for war in 2022 and 2023 respectively. This referendum is clearly intended to provide a justification for future military adventure in Guyana.
Venezuela is set to hold a Presidential election in 2024 that ostensibly should be freer and fairer than the contested 2018 election (that saw Maduro successfully cling to power) due to an agreement the U.S. negotiated in October in exchange for desperately needed oil sanctions relief. Lifting sanctions should provide an economic boost that Maduro will presumably use to his electoral benefit and invading Guyana prior to that election would undoubtedly snap those sanctions back in to place. But after the election? Don’t be surprised if a newly re-elected President Maduro decides to secure additional resources and lebensraum for Venezuela.
A common refrain here at Son of a Diplomat is that the world has a finite attention span when it comes to conflict. Divide that attention tenfold when it comes to the Global South. Should Caracas stay the de-stabilizing course it’s currently pursuing, don’t hold your breath for a Western intervention or the kind of material support for Guyana that Ukraine or Israel have enjoyed from their liberal democratic partners.
Acknowledging reality: The Houthis are a terror outfit
I mentioned briefly last week that the Houthis in Yemen had hijacked a Japanese-operated cargo ship in the Red Sea. They’ve now potentially1 seized an additional vessel flying a Liberian flag. This is completely unacceptable.
One of the Biden administration’s first acts in office was to remove the Shia militants from the Foreign Terrorist Organization designated list. This misguided effort to placate Iran was a mistake in 2021, and it’s still a mistake almost three years later. These lunatics are firing missiles at Israel and conducting high-seas piracy—these are terrorists engaging in terrorism. The Biden administration should acknowledge this reality and re-designate the Houthis as an FTO immediately.
Last week, John Kirby signaled the administration is actively considering re-designating the group in light of the initial tanker seizure. While the administration spent Thanksgiving chewing that over, terrorists took another trade vessel offline in the Red Sea. Iran, and their proxy non-state terror clubs should not be rewarded for attacking the United States’ allies, global trade, and our own forces. The Houthis should be burdened with all of the malign economic consequences of being designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
Furthermore, the United States should partner with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to end the threat of the Houthis once and for all and bring stability back to a fractured Yemen. Obviously there are valid human rights concerns about another potential KSA-led campaign in Yemen but that’s all the more reason we should be partnered with them in the effort for maximum transparency and leverage. Until Ayatollah Khamenei’s perpetual revolution is extinguished, his regional affiliates will continue to disrupt security and prosperity the world over. We should not sit back and allow that continue with impunity.
About thirty minutes ago the Pentagon issued a statement linking the latest hijacking to Somali actors rather than Yemeni ones as early reports indicated. The larger point still stands even if it’s confirmed the Houthis aren’t responsible for this latest round of piracy.