Trouble is Brewing North of the 38th Parallel
North Korea's new policy on the peninsula could signal a more aggressive rogue state
Three quarters of a century after the Soviet Union and the United States divided the Korean peninsula into what would become modern day North and South Korea, Kim Jong Un has abandoned the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s official policy of peaceful reunification. The Supreme Leader is now thirteen years into his reign and allegedly just entered his forties. Given his illness-plagued history and entry into middle age, the North Korean dictator must surely be thinking about his legacy and this policy shift could be a dark harbinger of renewed warfare in one of the world’s longest running frozen conflicts.
The third generation Kim addressed the Supreme People’s Assembly last week, vowing to annex South Korea should the war resume and suggesting amending the constitution to officially designate Seoul as the DPRK’s main rival:
Kim said the constitution should be amended to educate North Koreans that South Korea is a "primary foe and invariable principal enemy" and define the North's territory as separate from the South…North Korea should also plan for "completely occupying, subjugating and reclaiming" South Korea in the event of a war, and South Koreans should also no longer be referred to as fellow countrymen, Kim added, calling for the severing of all inter-Korean communication and the destruction of a monument to reunification in Pyongyang.
This escalatory development comes amid a backdrop of increased militarization and cooperation with other internationally sanctioned authoritarian regimes. Pyongyang reportedly tested a “solid fuel intermediate-range missile tipped with a hypersonic warhead” last week and has also announced plans to increase their military’s space presence:
The North Korean leader also announced a plan to launch three new military spy satellites in 2024, highlighting the country’s continued focus on its space and military programmes. In the first few days of January, state sources released photographs of his visit to a missile launcher factory, and Kim was reported as saying North Korea needed to “prepare for war”.
Not only are the North Koreans upping domestic military hardware production and bellicose rhetoric, they’re also exporting rockets to Russia that have been directly linked to the destruction of Ukrainian army logistics bases in 2024. The fact that Pyongyang’s foreign minister visited Moscow last week suggests the hermit state will continue providing Russia with the means to bombard Ukrainian civilian apartment blocks and military positions in places like Avdiivka as the war grinds on.
Reports have also shown North Korean RPGs have made their way into the hands of Hamas militants and were used during the October 7 terror attack in Israel. In the past, the DPRK has supplied Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria with materials used to make ballistic missiles and chemical weapons. This is a highly dangerous pipeline of substantial support to the axis of destabilization.
As Kim Jong Un abandons peaceful reunification as a possibility it’s important to remember North Korea has thousands of artillery pieces pointed at South Korea and in 2006 became the ninth active nuclear state. The latter of which we have Pakistan to thank for in another example of the ISI actively undermining the security of the West (Don’t forget they harbored, and equipped Taliban fighters during the war in Afghanistan while also giving Osama bin Laden safe haven in Abbottabad).
A 2002 New York Times report outlined how Islamabad provided the technology that made a North Korean nuke possible and The Guardian’s coverage included a retrospectively dark tangent about the U.S. assessment of Pakistan at the time:
The report in yesterday's New York Times that Pakistan had supplied equipment to enrich uranium, including gas centrifuges, deepens the crisis posed by the discovery of North Korea's clandestine development of a bomb. Pakistan's military dictator, General Pervez Musharraf, is seen as a bulwark in the Bush administration's war on al-Qaida and the Taliban.
Pakistan was instrumental in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan’s collapse and helped equip the world’s most paranoid, isolated, and totalitarian dictatorship with nuclear weapons. Quite the twenty-first century run for our “Major non-NATO ally” in south Asia.
It may be tempting to dismiss North Korea’s recent moves as sabre rattling intended for a domestic audience or as part of internal regime politics. But North Korea is behaving more aggressively, adding to the destruction in conflict zones around the world and shelling the Korean border in what appears to be an attempt to bait South Korea into responding. North Korea is a tremendous threat to world stability and deserves more attention than a throw away line from the U.S. National Security Advisor at the end of his speech to the World Economic Forum.
Houthis
Fifty-one days after I wrote that the Biden administration should re-designate the Houthis as a terrorist organization, the Department of State has finally come to the same conclusion:
The Department of State today is announcing the designation of Ansarallah, commonly referred to as the Houthis, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group, effective 30 days from today. Since November, the Houthis have launched unprecedented attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as well as military forces positioned in the area to defend the safety and security of commercial shipping. These attacks against international shipping have endangered mariners, disrupted the free flow of commerce, and interfered with navigational rights and freedoms. This designation seeks to promote accountability for the group’s terrorist activities. If the Houthis cease their attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the United States will reevaluate this designation.
I could do without the mealy-mouthed language about re-evaluating the designation if they stop hitting ships in the Red Sea—The Houthis are doing plenty of terroristic things in Yemen proper in addition to the piracy and maritime attacks in international waters. The fact that Iran is directing and overseeing these attacks in addition to arming and funding the Yemeni rebels should also be enough to keep them on the Foreign Terrorist Organization lists.
The Biden administration has now conducted multiple rounds of airstrikes on Houthi assets, recently launching Tomahawk cruise missiles at Houthi missile launchers that were preparing to fire on commercial and U.S. ships in the region. I tend to agree with Eliot Cohen who wrote in The Atlantic last week:
If the United States wishes to bring the Houthi attacks to an end, then for every bomb and missile that falls on the Houthis, another should fall on their Iranian advisers in Yemen, or on the planes and ships that are delivering their supplies, or on the facilities and vessels that help them target ships off Yemen. People are harder to replace than things, and instilling fear is more effective than dreaming of deterrence.
If we’re going to end the threat of the Houthis, we’re going to need to solve the root problem.
Iran
Speaking of Iran, in addition to supporting various regional terrorist organizations they’re also now directly bombing their neighbors:
Within 24 hours, Iran launched missile and drone strikes on targets in three countries — Iraq, Syria and Pakistan — and took the extraordinary step of announcing its responsibility for the attacks, triggering anger from its neighbors.
Pakistan claims two children were killed in the strikes intended for Baluchi separatists and responded by recalling their Ambassador and targeting Baluchs on the Iranian side of the border in retaliatory strikes of their own. Around the same time the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a strike on Erbil, Iraq claiming to neutralize an “Israeli Spy Headquarters”, and allegedly targeted ISIS in Syria.
The Ayatollah’s regime is a perpetual chaos machine. Until the current government is dislodged (preferably by internal revolution—that we should be doing everything in our power to support) it will continue to fund and support terrorism in the region, build towards acquiring a nuclear weapon, and seek the destruction of the state of Israel.
Myanmar
The Chinese-mediated ceasefire between the Burmese Junta and the National Unity Government doesn’t seem to have lasted long:
Fighting erupted between the junta and allied ethnic groups in northern Myanmar just days after the two sides agreed a ceasefire, according to a statement released Wednesday by the Three Brotherhood Alliance. The alliance accused junta soldiers remaining in Shan state’s Kokang of firing grenades, the statement said. It added that junta troops launched the weapons from 30 meters (98 feet) away while allied Kokang resistance fighters were stationed near Kachin mountain.
It isn’t clear whether the recent ceasefire violations are intentional or due to communication challenges in the incredibly large and topographically diverse country. What is clear is that the NUG forces have had incredible momentum since launching their October offensive and have even secured junta troop surrenders post-ceasefire:
Nearly 300 junta troops surrendered to the Arakan Army this week as the ethnic rebel group took control of a major Myanmar military encampment in northern Rakhine state, residents told Radio Free Asia. The Arakan Army’s victory in Kyauktaw township on Tuesday came two days after it captured a nearby artillery battalion, a resident told RFA on condition of anonymity.
Observers have noted that the fledgling junta has even lost air superiority for the first time since the fighting broke out. Ceasefire notwithstanding, it seems like the NUG has a real shot at gaining control of the country in 2024.
Burkina Faso
The military junta in Burkina Faso claims to have rooted out their fourth coup plot in seventeen months:
Citing findings of preliminary investigations Rimtalba Jean Emmanuel Ouédraogo said the coup was scheduled to take place on January 14. He added that a network of military officers, some retired some active, as well civilians and activists conspired to destabilize the institutions of Burkina Faso. The network allegedly sought to target citizens' watch bodies to sway the people support for the ruling MPSR (Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration)…It is the fourth coup attempt authorities in Burkina Faso have claimed to have thwarted since captain Ibrahim Traoré took power by force in September 2022.
Maybe these were actual coup attempts or maybe they were just an excuse to further round up dissidents and critics of Captain Traoré’s regime. It’s not like the west African juntas are known for transparency. To that end, Traoré has been strengthening ties with Russia who recently re-opened its embassy after a thirty-one year diplomatic absence in the country.
Ecuador
Ecuadorian officials have arrested two suspects accused of murdering in broad daylight the prosecutor assigned to investigate the narco-terrorist storming of a live TV broadcast on January 9. After stamping out the explosion of violence in the Ecuadorian prison system and cities, official were stunned to find prosecutor César Suárez gunned down in the streets of Guayaquil in retaliation:
Suárez was shot more than 20 times when he was driving a white car in the north of Guayaquil. He had just left his office, and was heading to a court for a hearing. He was known for being tireless, incorruptible. His murder is reminiscent of the Italian mafia’s attacks on judges in the 1990s, or the current killings of prosecutors in Mexico, where drug trafficking has been deeply entrenched for decades. The death of the prosecutor reveals the power of the Ecuadorian gangs, which have infiltrated the heart of the state system.
Meanwhile Javier Milei’s new administration in Argentina has deported the family of Los Choneros Cartel boss Adolfo Macías Villamar back to Ecuador:
The wife and children of a wanted Ecuadorean gang leader have been detained and expelled from Argentina. Argentina's security minister said the move against Adolfo Macías Villamar's family showed the country is a "hostile territory for narco-criminals". The gang leader, known as Fito, is at large after escaping from an Ecuadorean prison earlier this month…The move comes as Ecuador's government continues to hunt Fito while attempting to quell an outbreak of gang-related disorder that has plunged the country into crisis.
Hopefully Ecuador can safeguard their public servants better in the future while they conduct their war on narcoterrorism lest the South American country suffer the same fate as so many other cartel-plagued states.
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